'The critical event signalling a new era for India was Dr Singh's 1991 Budget in which he quoted Victor Hugo to say that no power on earth could stop an idea whose time has come,' recalls T N Ninan.
The BJP is the preferred choice because it offers what the Mughals and later British offered in their time: A stable polity and an environment in which business could function, explains T N Ninan.
With changes to Delhi's architectural map, a re-naming rash, and more Hindu symbolism in secular spaces, the government is making it clear it wants a clean break with post-colonial India, asserts T N Ninan.
The likelihood is that India will maintain a moderately upbeat economic tempo -- well short of tearaway growth, explains T N Ninan.
If only the Congress could rebuild on its strengths and develop a modern enough ideology, we could again be moving towards a clearer two-party political landscape, asserts Shekhar Gupta.
Don't be surprised if growth in the second half of the financial year drops below 4%, which is where it was in the year before the pandemic, warns T N Ninan.
A family man, a confident investor, someone who was sure two decades ago that India and its stock market were going to boom. T N Ninan recalls his chats with Rakesh Jhunjhunwala.
The RBI's mistake may have been in interpreting its mandate to maintain retail inflation at 4%, with 2% leeway in either direction, as being a mandate that permitted it to do nothing even when inflation was at or near the upper bound of 6%, observes T N Ninan.
Anyone within range of China's expanding navy will have to build capabilities faster and/or work more closely with the US, as Australia has just announced, asserts T N Ninan.
That such a deal can be greeted with celebration in the camps of both buyer and seller speaks volumes about the airline and its recent history, explains T N Ninan.
You will need a sharper eye for stock picking and a greater appetite for risk than most retail investors possess, recommends T N Ninan.
This failure of basic short-term policy is surprising, given the star power that this government brings to its economic management.
Based on whether you choose the aviation, Bhopal or LIC numbers, and on the official death toll (in the absence of any other verifiable number), the value of human lives lost in the pandemic would range from Rs 16,500 crore to Rs 94,000 crore, explains T N Ninan.
A feature of 'Third World-ism' is lack of accountability. Whether and how the Modi government is held to account politically is a matter for the future, observes T N Ninan.
India did not create the problem. But if it had a better functioning government system, it would have been able to deal with it at lower cost to its citizens, explains T N Ninan.
A faltering economy may have led to a re-think on economic strategy. And Mr Modi might think he is politically strong enough to take some risks. But there could be a minefield ahead, observes T N Ninan.
That's because India does not have a serious venture capital industry with an appetite for risk, observes T N Ninan.
How long will the RBI allow the government to borrow cheaply? A change in policy direction will see rates climb and bond values fall. Investors in debt funds are therefore at risk, as are people invested in the heated stock market, warns T N Ninan.
The last three prime ministers who served full terms started out in their early 70s. Mr Modi is younger and fitter than all of them. But he needs to find it in him to change course if he is to beat the odds, notes T N Ninan.
'This is not without risk because extraordinary steps taken in exceptional times have the habit of becoming habits until the next crisis intervenes,' warns T N Ninan.
'Now Mr Modi has been offered a more real but different kind of war, which he has likened to the Mahabharat,' notes T N Ninan.
'The rupee has lost value against all other major Asian currencies, including that of Bangladesh and, of course, China.' 'Why should this be the case when the Indian economy has been growing faster than these economies, other than China?'
'No other language can now take its place. English is the language of professional education, which gives you a passport to a bright future,' says T N Ninan.
In politics, if your objective is only winning elections, just Chanakya neeti might do. For governance you need both, Chanakya neeti and Ram Rajya. You can neither beat up the farmers into submission, nor dismiss them as 'Khalistanis', asserts Shekhar Gupta.
'Course correction today would be good politics and also good economics,' notes T N Ninan.
Whatever the claims about the new GDP numbers being technically superior to earlier estimates, their public credibility depends on their passing some reality checks, argues T N Ninan.
'Coalition governments, sometimes assumed to mean years of political instability, actually saw key institutions emerging with greater strength -- the Election Commission, the judiciary, the press, and civil society at large, among others.' 'The question now is whether the clock is being turned back in a new political phase,' asks T N Ninan.
'Once we are past this electoral season, during which all promises are presented as free lunches, could we bring such non-populist issues into focus?' 'Like fixing the problems of the public sector?' points out T N Ninan.
'Should you give a man fish, or teach him how to fish?' 'Lurking hidden in the new bout of welfarism seems to be an admission that the State can't deliver for the poor anything other than cash,' notes T N Ninan.
If the surge in tax collections is sustainable, the finance minister has the elbow room to shoot for a fiscal deficit
That is the number for job creation that India needs to achieve, argues T N Ninan.
'Clearly, the financial system is a drag on the economy and underlines the need for improving banking practice, regulation and oversight.' 'Without that, and an end to the cronyism that caused part of the problem, one can kiss goodbye to 8% growth,' warns T N Ninan.
If Modi wants to be a man of history, he must make hard choices that will pay off down the road, says T N Ninan.
'The middle class you can hurt anytime. For revenues, politics, pleasure, anything,' notes Shekhar Gupta.
A more effective promotion of domestic manufacturing and mining could significantly reduce the trade deficit in key sectors, says T N Ninan.
'While people complain of the difficulties they are experiencing because of the lack of currency, they remain supportive so far of Mr Modi's initiative.' 'What the country should be concerned about is the prospect of a prime minister who is willing to sacrifice economic gain and risk large-scale job losses in exchange for personal popularity,'
The key reason for the country's stagnating exports is its failure to build a strong manufacturing base, says T N Ninan.
Is it because of the failure to deliver serious institutional reform or that, at the end of the day, we are like that only, asks T N Ninan.
The Modi government has ambitious plas to achieve 10% growth, but there is no assessment of how much money is needed for the whole package of measures, and where it will come from. In short, there is no plan for how to get from here to there, points out T N Ninan.
It has built confidence in the possibility of change; now reality has to catch up with the image and the expectation, says T N Ninan.
